Performance so far


Since the start of 2012 I have:


Gained 2.94% (excluding dividends and costs) of my investment - and the market is up 26.30% according to Google Finance

Been rated in the 65th percentile of all listed Trustnet.com OEIC managers (including dividends and costs - assuming that the market-average 1.6% per annum TER is charged across the board)

Achieved an average yield of 1.44% (averaged over the last twelve months) - compared to a market average of 2.8% (according to Digital Look).

Invested in a way that should deliver a pension around 48% of the value of my current income, based on current annuities and growth rates

Thursday, 10 November 2011

The wonders of arbitrage, and the impact of small percentages

Arbitrage is "practice of taking advantage of a price difference between two or more" .... of anything really. It doesnt make a difference unless the price difference is across A LOT of something e.g. 10p price difference per tin of beans, across 10,000 tins of beans (£1,000!), or unless it is done regularly.

Consider £100. It grows by 3% per year (what some people might consider the likely long term growth rate of stocks in the UK). Next year it is £103. The following year it grows again, not to £106 but to £106.09 - and the following year to £109.27. In the 37 years to my retirement it gets to £298.52 - so nearly three times as much. Pretty good, if it wasn't for the impact of inflation (which in late 2011 runs at more than 5%, so my pension pot is actually LOSING value).

But don't worry - there's dividends too. Those are payments that some companies make to their shareholders each year, out of the profits tha company makes. Tesco pays 4.06% in late 2011, British Gas owner Centrica pays 5.09%, and Google ..... well, it pays 0%. Let's say we are about (UK) average (US stocks tend to pay out a lot less), and we get paid a "yield" (i.e. the percentage of the share price) of 2.5% across all the shareholdings we own.

After 1 year our £100 has become £105.50, after two it's £111.30, after 3 it's £117.42 ..... all the way up to £725.01 after 37 years. We are in the money guys, and this is why investing your pension pot in company shares is a great idea.

Except hold on.....I am investing in the market through funds. I have to pay the fund manager. Suddenly that 3% + 2.5% = 5.5% per year needs to be reduced to take account of the fund manager charges. I learned about Total Expense Ratios (TERs) when I was trying to find out how much funds cost. One way of measuring them is the fund's own quoted Annual Management Charge but that seems to be a bit of a con - TERs are generally regarded as more representative. And the UK average TER? According to this Telegraph article it's about 1.6% (the article also says TER is also rubbish, but doesnt give a very acceptable alternative!). In Denmark, the cheapest in Europe, it's 1.49% according to this article.

So how does that affect my £100 over 37 years? Assuming the same growth (3%) and dividend (2.5%), in Denmark my fund manager would give me £428.33 back, and in the UK £411.88. I looked at my Scottish Widows TERs - one of them was 1.77%, so my £100 would only be worth £387.67.

I was looking at these numbers , side by side with this childish portfolio of random stocks recommended in The Week I was running through Google Finance. I was thinking about the guys with public school accents and hangovers. I was thinking, this is a complete joke industry.......

Who else sells you a service that causes you to lose almost half what it delivers you, without in many cases anyone even asking a question.

And the thing that drove me round the bend the most? Quantitative easing - Government-sponsored money printing (which always works) that made my funds worth loads more for about three weeks, then drop back in value again.

I decided that next time the Government announced it was printing loads of money, I was cashing in my chips at this metaphorical joint.....

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