A New Hope......

So, today I took a risk ... although obviously it shouldn't be because you don't risk your future (by doing silly things like running your pension yourself without any financial services experience).

I have been reading about CAPE which is a way of measuring the value of a market against its average - it's supposed to be a real hardcore value investor approach to reviewing markets.  Unsurprisingly, Europe totally sucks at the moment - and it's CAPE reflects that.

So, looking down the list, where'd you think I went for? Greece? No. Portugal?  Yes, you got it - Portugal. 

But I went for a very interesting company there - one that my colleague at work commented 'how do you find these companies?!'.  EDP, or Energias de Portugal, is the former state electricity company - and it is awesome.  Why?  Well, a couple of things I really like about it:

1. It is the majority shareholder in EDP Renováveis - the world's third largest wind farm builder and operator
2. The Chinese have bought into it in a big way but do not control it.

It also has some tasty fundamentals which you can see on the investor's page - so it's paying consistent, increasing dividends - and the yield is 7.67% on Google Finance at the moment.   It's also got good geographical coverage - Spain, Portugal, Brazil, France, Poland, Romania, Belgium and the United States.  Dividend cover was 1.68 for the 2011 dividend - not initially attractive, until you consider this is a utility in a depressed state going through horrendous austerity because of Germany.  It's not going to get any worse unless the global financial system goes into meltdown (hopefully my gold holding will cover my ass in that eventuality!)

Other things I was looking at this month were getting involved in some forestry investment companies, or potentially more Unilever or Carnival Cruises - because they are both nice and boring with dividends that keep coming (60% of historic stock market growth has come from dividends, remember!).

Ok, that's all for today.  Hopefully no more African Barrick Gold events in this second Chinese-contacted business....

African Barrick Whoaoa!

An exciting early purchase this week - African Barrick Gold's shareprice nosedived on Tuesday morning after the majority shareholder, Barrick Gold Corp, announced it wasn't going to flog off African Barrick Gold to the Chinese state gold producer.

Why does this mean a 20% drop in the company's (African Barrick Gold) value? I have no idea - I guess the speculators were cleared out of the market.  What it did mean for me was 'buying opportunity' - nothing in what I care about had changed, apart from the expected dividend which touched over 3% - so I doubled my holding.

Since I bought in the share price is back up by a 1-1.5%, so no big dramas.  Do I think the dividend is safe?  I'd say so, given that Barrick Gold Corporation needs to cashflow to push out it's own dividends.

I read a slightly concerning story about energy rationing in Zambia, which is affecting the miners there, but I am not overly concerned about these kind of things.

The last three, and my thoughts for 2013

Ok, back in ....

De La Rue

Market dominant (the majority of nations are or have been customers), a predicted yield of more than 4%,  and the wife is a big fan - there was little choice but to get some De La Rue the month I did buy into it.

It had a rather sad end to the year, dropping over 10% - but is it still a goer?  It's on a very high price to earnings (just shy of 25), but fundamentally looks like it has a sound basis.  What could really screw the company up is bad management - they do have a couple of European competitors, and I am sure the business between the three is pretty cut-throat.  Diversification is what will keep this business profitable in the long run - and it's a relief to me they also manufacture high security feature passports.

Unadjusted yield: 2.74%

Greggs

This company was a stock market darling when I bought in, being one of only a handful of firms to increase it's dividend for decades in a row.  So why's it near the bottom of the list?

Although Lancaster has three of them, outside of the UK its non-existant - and i don't really see us convincing many foreigners to look like fat pies over the next few years.

Since I bought in, the Chairman has announced his intention to step down in 2013 and the CEO has been poached by Brakes (and good for him - its a great promotion).  The significant question for me is: are these rats leaving the metaphorical ship?  I have to say, with a slowdown in sales announcement a few weeks ago I can't really see myself doing anything more with Greggs for the coming few months.  It will remain on the watch list, but I cannot see it getting further.

Unadjusted yield: 3.78%


Vodafone

Oh Vodafone, how I love you!  Not because you are the last stock to blog on, but because you are such a perfectly successful British multinational. So why have you done this to me?  It's so out of character.  Not only are you my dog, but you are one of the Dogs of the FTSE.

I bought two tranches of Vodafone in 2012, and they've combined to give me a big kick in the teeth.  Its the world's biggest mobile telecommunications company when measured by revenues, second only to China Mobile in subscriber numbers (and that is a mobile market you do not want to go anywhere near).  It has amazing overseas exposure - Africa, North America, Europe (and therein lies the problem), the Far East.....

It also has to compete for fourth generation frequencies all over the world.  The electromagnetic spectrum is regulated by countries who allow you to send messages on wavelengths if you have bought them.  Right now the fourth generation frequencies are being auctioned - and if you remember the ridiculous amount of money that was spent on the 3G licenses, the market does, you will know why to be frightened.

But lets get real - its certainly hard to unpick the telecoms crash from the dot com crash and identify what the impact on the mobile phone companies was of overpaying - but these are services which are only going to grow.  Landlines are dead - data communication is the future - and firms like Vodafone, with their equipment partners (Huawei, Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, ZTE, Nokia Siemens Networks), are the businesses that will benefit.  This is still gold rush territory in my head.

So will I be selling?  Will I hell!  I have absolute conviction in this company - even though the market doesn't.  In 30 years time I'll find out if I was right!

Unadjusted yield: 3.66%

So that's all for this year's review.  What do I anticipate in the next twelve months? Probably the following:

1. No crash, but no significant growth (so outperform with good dividend yielders)
2. A continued increase in the price of gold - primarily driven by central banks
3. A reduction in the portfolio running cost as the cost of share acquisition reduces as an overall proportion of the total fund value (it's front weighted, but the shares stay for ever)
4. A reduction in government expenditure internationally - so avoid those providing the government with services if the government is the main customer (raising questions about poor old CareTech)
5. A good old UK Tory Party scandal (its as easy as predicting rain in Lancashire)

Until next time...

The first twelve

So that's just over twelve months gone of my high-stakes experiment into running my own pension fund.  The performance highlights (if I were a fund manager i'd be fired):

1. I've achieved a share value growth of 0.32%, compared to the FTSE all share index which is up 8.25%
2. My gross yield is 1.23%; the market manages 3.4% at the time of writing
3. Costs are low - my TER is running at 0.99%, compared to a market average of 1.6%

So I should really fire myself now and get into a tracker.  Or should I?  Let's have a look at each holding to see how it has done.

I currently have 16 shares held in my portfolio, one over the magic fifteen recently reported as the 'optimum' number.  Their performance breaks down as follows:

• Aviva   -   up 25.97%
• Carnival   -   up 21.09%
• J Sainsbury   -   up 14.80%
• Games Workshop Group   -   up 13.85%
• Unilever   -   up 8.87%
• Caretech Holdings   -   up 2.65%
• African Barrick Gold   -   up 1.41%
• Smith & Nephew   -   up 0.73%

• IG Group   -   down 4.18%
• Tesco   -   down 6.10%
• XP Power   -   down 6.53%
• ETFS Swiss Physical Gold   -   down 7.14%
• Dee Valley Group   -   down 7.14%
• De La Rue   -   down 11.39%
• Greggs   -   down 12.06%
• Vodafone   -   down 12.70%

Aviva

This company has had a seriously up and down year - at one point it was down 20% from purchase price, now it's 25% up!

I bought into Aviva because I read it was trading at a discount of 30% to its share price (or Price to Book - P/B).  Well, according to the Motley Fool its now only at a discount of 7% - so that looks like it was a good buy.  The company is flogging off unprofitable businesses to maintain the dividend - which Google Finance currently has at 6.97%.

It looks like the two purchases I made were when it was a good buy, but i'd say with all the risk around the business the opportunity there has now closed.

Not adjusting for inflation, the shares have yielded 5.77% on the in ital purchase prices.

Carnival

If you remember back that far, at the start of 2012 the Costa Concordia ran aground - partially capsizing and killing 32 people.  A very sad event that led to (in my view) a huge overreaction by the market. 

The Costa Concordia cost Carnival Corporation $570 million to build and fit out accord to Wikipedia.  It was insured.  The market valuation of Carnival Corporation dropped from £20 billion to £16 billion overnight - equating to about 10 times the value of the asset (the boat).  Carnival dominate the international cruise industry, and logic said that the shares would have to recover to somewhere near the previous level fairly quickly.  As at lunchtime on Monday, they were 3.24% higher than the day before the disaster happened.

Again, not adjusted for inflation the shares have yielded 4.85% over the purchase price.

J Sainsbury

A good performer, but i'll be honest now: I have no idea why I bought into this stock off the top of my head.

Looking back, it was because I believed it was a good defensive share (admittedly with very poor geographical diversification - nothing of note outside the UK).  The wife perceived them to have much more ethical practices than other major food retailers in my portfolio, and it was on course for a 4.8% yield.  And that was about it.

It's great performance over the last twelve has been something to do with its ability to compete in the UK market, where it has grown it's market share five months in a row to the start of December. 

Looking forward, there are concerns as to the general marketing conditions in the UK for retailers - very competitive, and household incomes being squeezed.  BUT - i'd point you back to my earlier post; everyone needs to eat.

Unadjusted yield from J Sainsbury over the last 12 months has been 3.87%.

Games Workshop

A blast from my childhood, I bought into Games Workshop because it had good geographic diversification and a massive 'moat' over it's (non-existent) competitors - meaning it is able to maintain very good margins.  It also had a yield i'd calculated as 11.82% based on what Google Finance was telling me. 

I now pop into the stores and talk to the staff regularly; they remain (in Covent Garden at least!) fantastic ambassadors for the firm.  They are all hobbyists, friendly, and knowledgeable about the current and past Games Workshop market offerings.

Its only technical downside as a company, which prevented me buying in for a second time in late August, was it's dividend cover which was just over 1.  I popped into the Covent Garden store just before Christmas, and it wasn't busy (i had expected it to be rammed), so I look forward to seeing the interim results that will be out in the next couple of weeks.

Unadjusted yield: 2.76%

Unilever

A true 'blue chip' company, what could go wrong with Unilever?  It turned out not much.  The one story I remember since buying into Unilever was the one about the excellent performance in emerging markets.  First world consumers will not be switching brands too much between P&G, Unilever, and a couple of other big players - but emerging markets are their to be educated as to their preference brands.  That Unilever is growing strongly is a good sign - and it is historically 50% British, so I expect will do well in the former colonies.

It was expected to yield about 3.8% back in January 2012 - it's put in 3.56% unadjusted over the last twelve months.  Good work Unilever.

CareTech

Remember CareTech?  I know/knew someone there who gave me great confidence in the firm - and it's had a storming year from a share price perspective, up 51.62% according to Google Finance.

The first time I bought in was because they had cheap offices (no leather arm chairs for the secretaries), a 4.65% yield, and the share price looked like it had been hammered by the Southern Cross debacle (an unrelated care home business that ran out of cash).  I also noted in August that it had an amazing dividend cover of about 3.6 times - leaving loads of room for growth.

0.87% unadjusted yield so far - but their main annual dividend is paid in January which should give a big boost.

African Barrick Gold

I bought into African Barrick 17 days ago - there's not so much to say so far!  An attempt to get into a good yield, diversified gold miner - the gold mining sector being one that is increasingly appearing in the press as a 'bombed out' area.  The price of gold vs price of miners has been diverging for years, and is due a correction (either cheaper gold, which is bad for me, or more expensive miners which is good news).

Smith & Nephew

A company with an andpersand in the name - very annoying when running searches, I can tell you!

Since I bought in: the CFO has resigned and it has bought a wound care company in the US (many have criticised it for 'giving up' on the market and taking the easy acquisition option).

I got in because it mends old people (there are lots of those coming - whether we as a society can afford to mend them is a different matter!), and has a big dividend increase on the cards backed by a dividend cover of more than 3 (meaning more growth potential).

IG Group

Seemingly perversely, I bought more shares in this company after it had continued a long march down into the doldrums since my first purchase.  Why? you ask.

I got into IG Group because it's a world leader in what it does.  It is exposed to western markets (but that's where people with money for spread betting live!) and carried a 4.2% dividend yield in February 2012 (now at 5.00%).

Trading volumes have been down this year, as the markets have been settled (some say 'zombiefied' due to state involvement / interference) - but as the last few days have shown, there are big political problems in the world's biggest economy which will have a huge impact on the markets tomorrow morning I suspect.  Uncertainty makes companies like IG Group thrive, and I do not believe we are out of the woods yet!

As I observed when I bought in last month, it also has SEVEN MONTHS SALES worth of cash in the bank.  Nice!

It's unadjusted yield works out to 4.57% (discounting the purchase I made three weeks ago, which would make the yield 2.26%).

Tesco

What a drama this company has caused me!  After years of sustained sales growth, it tanks within weeks of me buying in.  It needs no introduction as a business, and is beginning to feel better at the moment.  Another Carnival-esque purchase, I just did not believe Tesco was worth 18% less because of a sucky Christmas.  I guess we will find out in a few days what the last couple of weeks have meant for them.

The great thing about Tesco over J Sainsbury is it has financial muscle.  Big-picture stuff I know, but India is desperate to modernise its agriculture and food logistics systems.  Sainsbury wont go near it (successfully, at least!), but Tesco is already there.  Tesco is British - and we have such close cultural ties, i've little doubt that some of today's shelf stackers in the UK will be getting all-expenses-paid one way trips to India in the next decade to run state-wide operations for Tesco in India.

Its unadjusted yield over the last twelve has been 4.13% - not to be sniffed at!

XP Power

A company I have a strange fascination with, I bought into XP Power because it does something specific well.  The management own around 19% of the outstanding shares (a good sign!), and it chucks off a decent enough dividend (currently around 4.76%).

Why's the share price down? No obvious reasons, so maybe another good one to pick up more of shares in.

Sadly for me, XP Power hasn't paid a dividend yet since I bought it in October so no yield on this one!

ETFS Swiss Physical Gold

This share makes me sick! I thought gold was meant to hold it's value :-)

Gold watchers talk about a 'consolidation' phase, and say that with more money printing and uncertainty on the horizon the price of gold can only go up.  Let's see - I am not enamoured with this one at the moment as it has created a significant drag on my portfolio.

Dee Valley Group

The UK's smallest listed water company, this company does not do too much.  A management change here, an improved business performance there - but looking at Google Finance you can see there's hardly anything really happening.

I bought into Dee Valley Group because I worked in the UK water industry and have my head around it.  It was yielding over 4%, and the Board has committed to maintaining the dividend in real terms for the next five years.   This company will almost certainly cease to exist come any deregulation of the UK water industry, a bit like Three Valleys Water.

2.86% unadjusted dividend since I bought in.

Ok .... getting bored now.   The next three look reasonably chunky to review, so i'll leave them for a few days.  This must be my longest post yet.